Which statement best defines probability?

• A. The degree to which the negative effects occur or are experienced
• B. The assessed potential for adverse consequences resulting from a hazard
• C. The likelihood of an event coming to pass
• D. The real or perceived condition, event, or circumstance that a pilot encounters

Answer: (C)

Probability is about how likely it is that something will happen. In UAS safety and aviation, it means the chance that a specific event or occurrence will occur, such as a GPS outage or a loss of control link, within a given time or operating condition. This definition focuses on the likelihood of occurrence, not on how severe the outcome would be or what hazard or condition might be present.

The statement that best fits defines probability as the likelihood of an event coming to pass. The other descriptions refer to impact or risk-related concepts (how bad effects might be, the potential consequences, or the actual condition you encounter), rather than the chance that the event itself will occur.